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The strength of these alliances depends on whether Trump views Tokyo and Seoul as bulwarks against China’s rise or vassals that can be extorted for financial gain.

President Trump's reciprocal tariffs on Japan (24%) and South Korea (25%) were largely in line with market expectations. Both countries will seek to negotiate lower tariffs, rather than retaliate. Yet US tariffs will generally hit Asia harder, adding to downside risks on growth for Tokyo and Seoul