The style of the forecasting model can lend credence to a set of judgments that have no substance. And the judgments usually will have little substance because judgment (even “expert” judgment ...

I show that, at long horizons, IMF forecasts are little better than a forecasting rule that uses no information other than the historical global sample average growth rate (i.e., a constant). Given ...

In his latest work, Shivendra Kumar, a forecasting expert with extensive experience in applied analytics, proposes a bold shift in how organizations evaluate predictions. With a career rooted in ...

Artificial intelligence is expanding into new frontiers, including one of the most complex: weather forecasting. Still, ...